August 18, 2020
Accrue Real Estate
You’ve heard the saying ‘safe as houses’, right? Well, it seems that old adage may ring true even in the current pandemic, with many of the nation’s top economic experts saying that’s where they’d put their money right now.
A Finder survey asked 28 leading experts and economists to weigh in on future cash rate moves and other issues related to the state of the Australian economy.
When asked: “Where do you think is the best place to invest your money right now?”, the leading response was “property”, with 1 in 3 experts (32%) backing it as their top option.
This was followed by shares (21%), gold (14%), superannuation (11%) and then cash (7%).
But hang on, isn’t the property market meant to be in trouble?
Rest assured it’s not all doom and gloom out there.
According to CoreLogic’s latest data, nationwide median housing values fell just 0.6% in July and fell 1.6% for the quarter, bringing the median dwelling value to $552,912.
However, to put that into context, over the past year national housing values have risen by 7.1%.
Sydney property prices led the way with a 12.1% increase in median value, followed by Melbourne (8.7%), Canberra (7.2%), Hobart (5.9%), Brisbane (3.8%) and Adelaide (2.4%).
Perth (-2.5%) and Darwin (-2.2%) were the only capital cities to record negative growth in housing values over the past 12 months.
Tim Lawless, CoreLogic’s head of research, said housing markets have remained relatively resilient through the COVID-19 period so far.
“The impact from COVID-19 on housing values has been orderly to-date,” says Lawless.
“Record low interest rates, government support and loan repayment holidays for distressed borrowers have helped to insulate the housing market from a more significant downturn.”
However, with fiscal support set to taper from October, and repayment holidays expiring at the end of March next year, Lawless says the medium-term outlook remains skewed to the downside.
“Urgent sales are likely to become more common as we approach these milestones, which will test the market’s resilience,” adds Lawless.
Other interesting property market predictions
Here are a few other interesting stats and predictions we took out of the Finder survey:
– Almost half of experts (42%) believe now is a good time for homeowners to put their property on the market, while a quarter said homeowners should wait two years.
– Two-thirds of surveyed experts (65%) believe Australia will see GDP growth in 2020, despite the Treasurer confirming in June that the nation is now in recession.
– All experts believe no further cash rate cuts will be implemented this year. However, more than two-thirds (72%) of experts forecast an increase in 2021 or 2022.
– More than half of experts surveyed (58%) believe other banks will follow in St George’s footsteps to reduce lenders mortgage insurance (LMI) to $1 for first home buyers with a deposit of just 15%.
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